El Niño 2026: What Could It Mean for Lanzarote and the Canary Islands?
El Niño is back – and this time meteorologists are watching a potentially very strong event. But what does that actually mean for Lanzarote, and should residents and holidaymakers expect unusual weather?
The words El Niño are appearing increasingly often in weather forecasts and headlines, with international meteorological organisations warning that the current event could become exceptionally strong towards the end of 2026.
For people living in Lanzarote or planning a holiday to the island, that naturally raises questions. Could El Niño mean hotter weather? Less rain? More storms? And could Lanzarote experience the kind of extreme weather associated with the phenomenon elsewhere in the world?
The short answer is that El Niño can influence the weather patterns affecting the Canary Islands, but it does not provide a simple forecast of what will happen on Lanzarote on any particular day.
Here is what we know so far.
What exactly is El Niño?
El Niño is one phase of a natural climate pattern known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
It begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. That seemingly distant change can affect atmospheric circulation on a much larger scale, altering weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
El Niño normally occurs periodically, with events generally separated by several years. It can influence temperature, rainfall, atmospheric circulation and other weather patterns around the world.
The important thing to understand is that El Niño doesn’t create the same weather everywhere.
Some parts of the world can experience increased rainfall and flooding, while others may become hotter and considerably drier. The effects also depend on the strength and timing of each individual El Niño event.
2026’s El Niño is attracting particular attention
This isn’t just a case of meteorologists noticing a small change in Pacific Ocean temperatures.
According to the latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update published on 3 September 2026, El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to strengthen further.
The WMO currently puts the likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at almost 100%, with forecasts suggesting that the event could reach very strong intensity and peak towards the end of this year.
The organisation is also warning that a very strong El Niño can significantly alter temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world and increase the potential for extreme weather.
However, there is an important qualification: a very strong El Niño does not automatically mean equally severe impacts everywhere.
NOAA’s latest assessment similarly says the event is strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.
So what does El Niño mean for Lanzarote?
This is where things become particularly interesting for the Canary Islands.
The effects of El Niño can reach the North Atlantic and influence atmospheric circulation over the region. Research into previous El Niño events has found links with changes in temperature, rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation in the Canary Islands.
Historical research has also found that La Niña and El Niño do not necessarily produce identical rainfall patterns across the islands, highlighting just how complicated the relationship can be.
For Lanzarote, that complexity is particularly relevant because the island already has a naturally dry climate.
Lanzarote is the easternmost of the Canary Islands and sits relatively close to the African coast. Its climate is normally warm and dry, with relatively little rainfall compared with the wetter, more mountainous western islands.
That means even relatively small changes in weather patterns can be noticeable.
AEMET is already forecasting warmer conditions
There is another reason Lanzarote residents and visitors may want to keep an eye on the forecasts.
The latest AEMET seasonal forecast for September, October and November 2026 indicates that temperatures are likely to be in the above-normal tercile across the Canary Islands.
At the same time, AEMET forecasts that rainfall in the Canary Islands is more likely to fall into the below-normal tercile during the three-month period.
In simple terms, the current seasonal outlook points towards a warmer and potentially drier-than-average autumn for the Canary Islands.
That doesn’t mean every day will be hot and dry, of course. Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities over a longer period rather than predicting individual days.
Does this mean Lanzarote is going to have a drought?
Not necessarily.
This is an important distinction.
A seasonal forecast suggesting below-average rainfall does not mean that Lanzarote will receive no rain.
It is entirely possible for an island to have a relatively dry season overall while still experiencing one or two intense rainfall episodes.
In fact, Lanzarote’s geography means that short, heavy rainfall events can have a much greater local impact than the total amount of rain recorded over an entire season might suggest.
Anyone who has lived through flooding in parts of Arrecife or other low-lying areas will know that it doesn’t take weeks of rain to cause problems.
Could El Niño bring flooding to Lanzarote?
Potentially – but this needs to be put into perspective.
El Niño can contribute to changes in atmospheric circulation that increase the likelihood of unusual weather in different parts of the world.
That doesn’t mean that every El Niño produces flooding in Lanzarote, nor does it mean that a particular storm can automatically be blamed on El Niño.
Local weather in the Canary Islands is influenced by many factors, including Atlantic weather systems, atmospheric pressure, the trade winds, Saharan air intrusions and the islands’ complex geography.
Research into Canary Islands rainfall has found considerable year-to-year variability, with different parts of the archipelago responding differently to large-scale atmospheric patterns.
So if you’re living in Lanzarote, the sensible approach is not to assume that El Niño means a major flood event is coming.
Instead, it is another factor that meteorologists will be watching closely.
What about heatwaves and very hot weather?
This is arguably the more noticeable issue for Lanzarote residents and visitors.
El Niño is associated with changes in global atmospheric circulation and can contribute to unusually warm conditions in some regions.
And Lanzarote already has a climate where temperatures can remain high for long periods, particularly during summer and early autumn.
The latest AEMET seasonal outlook is currently favouring above-normal temperatures for the Canary Islands during September-November.
That doesn’t mean that every day will be exceptionally hot, but it does mean that another prolonged spell of warm weather cannot be ruled out.
For tourists, that could simply mean packing plenty of sun protection and staying hydrated.
For residents, particularly those working outdoors, exercising or spending long periods in the sun, prolonged heat can become much more significant.
Could El Niño affect Lanzarote’s famous trade winds?
There is evidence that strong El Niño episodes can be associated with changes in the strength of the trade winds around the Canary Islands.
Previous research has linked intense El Niño conditions with weaker trade winds, higher temperatures and reduced precipitation, although the precise effects vary from one event to another.
For Lanzarote, changes in the trade winds can be particularly noticeable.
The island’s wind is an important part of everyday life, affecting everything from sailing and surfing to how hot it feels outside.
A reduction in wind can make a warm day feel considerably more oppressive, while stronger winds can have the opposite effect.
And what about calima?
Another factor worth watching is Saharan dust.
Lanzarote is particularly exposed to episodes of Saharan air reaching the Canary Islands because of its geographical position.
Previous research and meteorological analysis have associated intense El Niño conditions with changes in the frequency of Saharan air intrusions into the Canary Islands.
A calima can bring much warmer air, dusty skies and reduced visibility, sometimes producing dramatic changes in conditions within a relatively short period.
However, it would be wrong to say that El Niño causes every calima experienced in Lanzarote.
The weather systems responsible for individual calima episodes are much more complicated.
What should Lanzarote residents watch for?
For people living on the island, the most relevant things to keep an eye on over the coming months are likely to be temperature, rainfall, wind and Saharan dust forecasts.
A particularly warm and dry autumn could have implications for water resources, agriculture and wildfire risk, while an occasional period of heavy rain could create localised flooding despite the overall season being relatively dry.
That is why long-term climate forecasts and short-term weather forecasts need to be treated differently.
The long-range outlook tells us about the broader pattern.
The short-range forecast tells us whether you should actually expect rain in Arrecife tomorrow.
And if severe weather develops, official warnings become the most important information of all.
Lanzarote’s weather could be one to watch this autumn
There is no doubt that El Niño 2026 is an unusually significant event.
The WMO expects it to strengthen towards the end of the year and persist into early 2027, while AEMET’s current outlook for the Canary Islands points towards a warmer-than-normal and potentially drier-than-normal autumn.
But it is important not to turn a climate signal into a definite local weather prediction.
El Niño doesn’t mean that Lanzarote is guaranteed to experience extreme weather.
What it does mean is that there is a large-scale change taking place in the climate system, and meteorologists will be watching closely to see how that translates into weather across the Canary Islands.
For those of us who live here – and for the thousands of people planning to visit Lanzarote over the coming months – it’s certainly something worth keeping an eye on.
